"Why metrics are" "Predictably Irrational"

I began my evening reading an article on AdAge titled "Why metrics are killing creativity in advertising." Patrick Sarkissian explains that economic hard-times are forcing clients to put more emphasis on metrics, which in turn is forcing agencies to prove, in concrete and measurable terms, how an off-the-wall idea is absolutely going to make the client millions.

Well, Patrick argues that "you cannot truly quantify creativity" and reminds us that "brand preference is built on emotional connections." I get that this is coming from a creative, but it resonates with me. I also get that a corporate CEO is going to have an entirely different take on the idea. And that's completely fair and understandable. If it was my money, I'd be careful with it too.

But, then I hopped over to BoingBoing and saw the headline "Predictably Irrational: subjecting the 'rational consumer' hypothesis to scientific scrutiny." And this is why I love blogs.

As if hearing the wails from my torn heart after reading the AdAge article, Cory Doctorow's review of Dan Ariely's lovely little book whispers the possible answer to my question over where I fall in the creativity vs. metrics tug-of-war. He explains:

"Predictably Irrational presents a fatal blow to the idea that we can run a system on the assumption that people will take courses of action based on rational calculus, unclouded by cognitive blind-spots that make it practically impossible to find the best course of action."

He goes on to say that this is an accepted concept in the business world and the book ultimately challenges economic theory that "the whole system behaves in a rational, Newtonian fashion and can be treated as such." But what's interesting to me is that this theory of irrationality adds validity to Patrick's point that creativity can't, and shouldn't be, quantified because consumers can't be predicted. Numbers ultimately present a trend and an assumed course of action, but Ariely's book seems to prove that we shouldn't just stop at the numbers on our journey to the wonderful world of Oz where the deepest motivations of consumers lie hidden but waiting to be discovered. If people act irrationally no matter what, then why not keep on running down the yellow brick road and trust those quirky creatives and their seemingly outrageous campaigns?